Why Placer.ai Traffic Data Predicts a Surprise for Restaurant Brands (QSR) on Oct 29

Rich DupreySun, October 25, 2026 at 3:00 PM UTC

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Placer.ai foot-traffic data shows QSR's portfolio outpaced the broader fast-food industry, setting up a potential fifth straight earnings beat on Oct 29.

Burger King U.S. comps surged 8.5% last quarter, beating the burger category by over 9 points, while Popeyes U.S. comps fell 5.2%.

Despite four straight beats, QSR shares averaged a -3% move on earnings day, meaning a Popeyes comp turnaround may be the catalyst the stock needs.

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Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) reports third-quarter results on Thursday, October 29. Placer.ai location data shows its portfolio outpaced the broader fast-food industry in quarterly foot traffic. That makes this report a test of whether those visits turn into a fifth straight beat.

Burger King Carries a Four-Quarter Beat Streak

Last quarter, adjusted EPS came in at $1.07, ahead of the $1.0364 estimate. Revenue of $2.52B was in line with estimates. Consolidated comparable sales rose 3.8%, and Burger King U.S. comps jumped 8.5%, beating the burger category by over 9 points.

The weak spots were clear. Popeyes U.S. comps fell 5.2%, and Tim Hortons Canada barely moved at 0.1%. Shares have gained 4.24% since the August 6 report and are up 13.4% year to date, closing Friday at $75.36.

QSR Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.Wall Street's Bar for the Quarter

Metric

Consensus

Year-Ago Actual

Implied YoY Growth

Q3 2026 Normalized EPS

$1.0857

$1.03

5.4%

Q3 2026 Revenue

$2.544B

$2.449B

3.9%

FY 2026 EPS

$4.0652

$3.69

10.2%

FY 2026 Revenue

$9.857B

$9.434B

4.5%

Traffic Gains Must Outrun Beef Costs and the Popeyes Deadline

Broad U.S. fast-food traffic fell 2.6% year-over-year in Q3, so gaining share in a shrinking pool matters. Burger King is my first focus. "Reclaim the Flame" and game-day promotions kept momentum going, while $5 Duos and $7 Trios support value with price increases held to low single digits.

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Popeyes is the reality check. Management promised a return to positive comparable sales in the second half of 2026, leaning on its $5 platform and an improved tender. You should look for real progress in Q3 comps, because Popeyes has been negative for 5+ quarters.

At Tim Hortons, which drives roughly 41% of operating profit, management pointed to Matcha, a Harry Potter campaign and a Canadian Tire loyalty tie-up to boost comps.

Costs are the balance. Beef prices sit at all-time highs, pressuring franchisee profits, with relief expected in early 2027. Management also noted a second-half FX drag of $0.02 to $0.03 to adjusted EPS.

Traffic Proof Could Validate the 8% Growth Promise

Management confirmed 8%+ organic Adjusted Operating Income growth and plans $1.6B in 2026 shareholder returns. Beats alone haven't moved the stock. After its last four beats, shares averaged a -3.06% move on earnings day. If Popeyes turns positive and Burger King traffic holds, I think the multi-brand story finally gets credit.

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Source: “AOL Money”