Rocket Lab Is Playing a Much Bigger Game Than Rocket Launches
Rocket Lab Is Playing a Much Bigger Game Than Rocket Launches
Vandita JadejaSun, October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC
0
Shutterstock (Shutterstock)Quick Read -
RKLB's $2.36B backlog supports a BUY rating and $68.07 price target despite shares falling 30% after Neutron's launch was pushed to 2027.
The Iridium (IRDM) acquisition brings Rocket Lab 66 satellites, over 2.5 million subscribers, and $870M in annual revenue, shifting it beyond launch services.
Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor)
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is $68.07 over the next 12 months. That is 35.06% above the current price of $50.40. Our model rates the stock a buy with moderate confidence.
Metric
Value
Current Price
$50.40
24/7 Wall St. Price Target
$68.07
Upside/Downside
35.06%
Recommendation
Confidence Level
60%
RKLB Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.
The market is pricing Rocket Lab as a launch company with a delayed rocket. Rather, it is a defense-heavy space prime building out its own communications network.
Backlog reached $2.36B (+137% YoY), and the Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) deal adds recurring service revenue. Dilution and Neutron execution are the reasons my confidence stops at 60%.
Neutron Delay Sparks a Sharp Sell-Off in Rocket Lab Shares
Shares are down 8.78% over the past week, 29.98% over the past month and 27.75% year to date. That leaves them 66.6% below the $151 52-week high.
On October 14, Rocket Lab pushed Neutron's first launch to 2027 after finding a defect in its carbon-composite tank. That same week, investors began to worry about FCC scrutiny of the Iridium deal, even though Iridium stockholders approved the acquisition on September 24.
In Q2, revenue of $234.07M rose 62% and beat estimates. GAAP EPS of -$0.08 missed the -$0.0767 consensus, partly because of $8.58M in acquisition costs.
Now Available: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income
Many successful investors eventually reach the same moment. The saving is done, the portfolio is built, and the question quietly changes from how much can I grow this to how much can I take out? Get that second question wrong and decades of good investing can come apart in a handful of years.
That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It covers what your retirement could actually cost, which income sources are worth using, and the withdrawal math that decides whether the money lasts. It is free today from Fisher Investments. Read More Here ›
RKLB Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.Bulls See a Path Back to $102
Iridium brings 66 satellites, more than 2.5 million subscribers and more than $870 million in annual revenue. CEO Peter Beck calls the deal "a starting point for an applications play, not the endpoint." The defense business keeps winning work.
Rocket Lab holds an $816M SDA Tracking Layer award, a $397M Flatellite contract and a $266 million Space Force HASTE deal. Meanwhile, Golden Dome is set to receive $17.9 billion in FY2027.
Advertisement
Analysts rate the stock 16 buys, 4 holds and no sells. My bull case is the $102.15 consensus target, which means 102.7% upside.
RKLB Analyst Ratings — 24/7 Wall St.Dilution and Delays Could Drag Shares Toward $37
Neutron was first scheduled to fly in 2024. Q2 brought a net loss of $49.26M, and management guided Q3 adjusted EBITDA to a wider loss of $17M-$23M.
On the downside, shares return to the $37.57 52-week low, a 25.5% decline. As a counterpoint, much of the cash burn went into building Neutron inventory ahead of demand. Non-GAAP gross margin also expanded to 41.5% from 36.9%.
RKLB Price Scenario — 24/7 Wall St.How Rocket Lab Compares to Lockheed Martin and AST SpaceMobile
Company
Market Cap/Sales
Latest Revenue Growth
Rocket Lab
39x TTM
62.0%
Lockheed Martin
1.7x 2026 guide
11.3%
AST SpaceMobile
64x 2026 guide
N/A
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) vies with Rocket Lab for missile-defense and national security space work. It carries a $292 billion backlog, but its Space division grew only 4%. That slower growth helps explain why Rocket Lab commands a premium multiple.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is a space-connectivity growth story still before commercial service. Q2 revenue of $31.52M missed estimates, yet it trades at a higher multiple of expected sales. Taken together, the two peers make our 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable, even somewhat conservative.
Rocket Lab Price Prediction 2026-2030
I'm staying with a buy rating, a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $68.07 and 60% confidence. The deciding factor is defense backlog that converts into revenue. Management expects about 45.5% of the backlog to become revenue within 12 months.
The bull case improves if Neutron reaches stage testing in early 2027 and Iridium passes regulators. The bear case gains weight if Rocket Lab announces new equity raises before Neutron flies.
These longer-range 24/7 Wall St. price target figures assume Rocket Lab keeps growing at its current pace and market conditions hold.
Year
24/7 Wall St. Price Target
2026
$55.44
2027
$68.07
2028
$85.09
2029
$106.36
2030
$132.95
The forecast depends on Rocket Lab keeping up its current strategy. A successful Neutron ramp could lift these numbers well above our forecast. Further delays or regulatory trouble with Iridium could push them well below it.
Released: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income
(Sponsor) Most people spend their entire working lives focusing on one thing: growing a pile of money. Then they retire and discover the skill they actually need is close to the opposite. Turning that pile into steady income, year after year, through good markets and bad, without ever running out.
It may be the least discussed and most consequential transition in personal finance, and plenty of otherwise careful investors walk into it with no real plan. That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It is a free guide from Fisher Investments covering what your retirement will really cost, where the cash flow should come from, and how much you can safely withdraw each year. Learn more here. Learn More Here ›
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
Source: “AOL Money”
